Better Than Jay Cutler

A lot of noise this past month about Jay Cutler. First, the Denver Broncos' new head coach, former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, apparently tried to work a trade to get Matt Cassel from the New England Patriots. This apparently didn't it well with the Pro-Bowl quarterback. After a lot of posturing from both sides, Cutler was eventually traded to the Chicago Bears for Kyle Orton and draft picks. This post isn't about who was right or wrong in the fracas, or which team got the better end of the deal in the trade. This post is about answering the following two questions:

1) How good is Jay Cutler?

2) Are there quarterbacks with similar experience that are better than Jay Cutler, and, if so, who are they?

The table below ranks each of the 30 quarterbacks that threw enough passes last year to qualify to be ranked. The ranking is based on CMI, and not the NFL's quarterback rating system. In numerous posts prior to this, I have discussed why CMI is a better measure of a quarterback's passing performance than the NFL passer rating system.

Just looking at last year, the year that Jay Cutler got named to his first Pro-Bowl, he was, by this measure, a below-average quarterback. His CMI of 0.536 was (0.14) standard deviations below the mean. It should be noted that even though he was below average relative to all quarterbacks in 2008, it wasn't unexpected. Previously, I discussed the notion of performance improving with experience. So, if you were to look only at quarterbacks and their second year performance, their average is (0.21) standard deviations relative to the mean. Relative to that measure, he actually did better than the typical second year quarterback.

Let's take a closer look at the table above. The last 2 columns indicate the # of years the quarterback has played since he first qualified, and the total # of years he has qualified. So, Cutler has played 2 seasons where he threw enough passes to qualify, and this is second consecutive year of being qualified. There are six other quarterbacks in this table who have similar experience.

They are (rank in parenthesis):

Jason Campbell - WAS (5)

Matt Schaub - HOU (7)

Trent Edwards - BUF (8)

David Garrard - JAX (12)

Jay Cutler - DEN (16)

Derek Anderson - CLE (30)

Of the six quarterbacks who were in their second year (Garrard has the most experience of all the quarterbacks, even though he has only qualified in two years), Cutler only outperformed Derek Anderson of Cleveland in 2008. Ok, so 1 year does not make a quarterback. Let's take a look at these six quarterbacks and see how they've done in each of their first two (qualifying) years.

According to this table, both Garrard and Schaub have outperformed Cutler in each of 2007 and 2008. And, arguably, over the two-year period, so did Campbell. The only quarterback in this class that has clearly underperformed the rest of the group is Derek Anderson. He will not last long in the NFL.

Admittedly, it's difficult to judge a quarterback after his first two years. But, so far at least, there appear to be several quarterbacks that have outperformed Cutler. It will be interesting to watch this group over the next several years, and especially Cutler, as he will be with a new team.

Anybody Looking for a Good QB?

Available:  Experienced quarterback with an accurate arm with ability to make immediate contributions to team; Ideally, would like to start, but not a requirement; may be perfect as back-up; durability maybe an issue.

I am referring of course to Jeff Garcia, released today by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  I am personally a big fan of Garcia, because I believe he is underrated, and his achievements on the field have gone relatively unnoticed.

Let's take a look.

He began his NFL career in San Francisco in 1999, replacing not one, but two back-to-back Hall of Famers, and arguably the two greatest passers of all-time, Joe Montana and Steve Young.  There was no way Jeff could live up to those lofty expectations.  However, he did perform very well, as the table and chart below shows.  While he may not have performed at Joe Montana and Steve Young levels, his years in San Francisco were very productive.  After a sub-par year in 2003, he bounced around for three years, first as a starter in Cleveland (2004), then as a back-up in Detroit (2005) and Philly (2006).  He finished the 2006 season as the starter in Philadelphia for the last 6 games after Donovan McNabb got injured.  He showed that he could still play, and Tampa Bay, in need of a quarterback following an injury to Chris Simms, picked him up.  He did well above average each of 2007 and 2008, as you can see from the table and charts (he doesn't show up in the charts in the years 2004-2006 since he didn't attempt enough passes to qualify).  

Now, Tampa Bay, deciding to turn to the youth movement, have invested in Luke McCown, and, have deemed Garcia expendable.  

Garcia has been a very accurate as a passer throughout his career.  In a previous post, I discussed interceptions at length.  His 2007 season ranks 18th all-time (see Exhibit 3 in this post) in interceptions per attempt, in terms of standard deviations from the mean (his 2008 season ranks 118th, out of the 1,451 seasons in the database since 1940).  As a career passer, he ranks 12th all-time (see Exhibit 6 in this post).  By not throwing interceptions, he will help your team win.

I believe that Garcia has a couple of good years still left in him, if not as a starter, as a back-up.  His durability has been an issue the past two seasons, and hence, might be a liability as the starter.  

So who might be worthwhile candidates?

The following charts show, for each of 2007 and 2008, how a team's passing game stacked up in terms of standard deviations from the mean.  It's no coincidence that teams that were above average won more games than they lost, and teams that were below average lost more games than they won.  The charts show how the teams did both in terms of NFL passer rating and CMI.  Note that Garcia averaged 0.53 standard deviations above average in terms of NFL passer rating for the past two seasons, and averaged 1.23 standard deviations above average in terms of CMI.

To see which teams should be looking to get Garcia, let's start at the bottom, and move our way up.

Cleveland Browns - They have two young quarterbacks, Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, both coming off season-ending injuries, that will compete for the starting job.  Not a candidate.  Look for another miserable year in Cleveland.

St Louis Rams - Marc Bulger is the starter, and for now at least, another soon-to-be 39 year-old - Trent Green, is the back-up.  Not a candidate.  By the way, what's happened to Bulger?  Will 2009 be more like his first few years, or his last two?  I suspect the latter.  Another long year in St Louis.

Oakland Raiders - Paying a lot of money for JaMarcus Russell.  They've also got Andrew Walter, Marques Tuiasosopo, and they just picked up Bruce Gradkowski off waivers.  I haven't a clue what the Raiders are doing, and I don't think the Raiders do either.  Not a candidate.  Perhaps we'll start paying attention when Al Davis passes away.

San Francisco Forty Niners - They're not sure who their starting quarterback is.  Shaun Hill?  J.T. O'Sullivan?  Alex Smith?  The niners maybe a candidate.  Garcia played here, and is originally from close-by Gilroy.

Detroit Lions - Daunte Culpepper is the starter.  Or is it Dan Orlovsky?  Didn't seem to matter in 2008, as they went 0-16.  If I was GM, I'd replace Culpepper with Garcia, and draft a quarterback.  But that's just me.  Garcia may not want to go here, but that's a different matter altogeher.

Chicago Bears - Kyle Orton is the starter, and Rex Grossman is the back-up.  Neither of whom are very good.  I would think that Garcia would be an excellent choice to be a back-up here.

Kansas City Chiefs - Tyler Thigpen is the starter.  Previous starter Damon Huard is the back-up.  Garcia could be a potential back-up here.

Cincinnati Bengals - Ryan Fitzpatrick finished the year as the starter, having replaced the injured Carson Palmer.  Not a candidate.

Of the remaining teams, perhaps the Minnesota Vikings might be interested.  Gus Frerotte is simply not a good option.  Maybe they'll lure Brett Favre out of retirement!  The NY Jets might be an option for Garcia as well.  Most likely, Kellen Clemens will be the starter, but Garcia could be a viable back-up here.  

So these are teams that should be interested in Garcia.  We'll wait and see where he actually ends up.  

Crazy, Debatable and Lucky

Today, the Green Bay Packers lost at home to the Houston Texans, 24-21 on a last-second field goal.  This dropped the Packers to 5-8 for the season, and, for all practical purposes, knocked them out of the playoffs.  I'm sure the Packer faithful will start to think what might have been....

The Packers were coming off a 13-3 season, having won their division handily, and were one win away from the Super Bowl, a loss to the eventual winner, the New York Giants at home.  

Then the soap opera started.  First, Brett Favre, the Packers QB for the past 16 seasons, decided it was time to retire.  The Packers, who had drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005, were prepared.  During the offseason, the Packers named Aaron Rodgers the starting QB for the 2008 season.  Second, Brett Favre decided he wanted to play in 2008.  Nothing wrong with that.  Only that he had "lost" his starting job to Aaron Rodgers.  No way a future hall of famer is going to be carrying a clipboard for an untested, essentially rookie QB.  Not after the season Favre just had had.  After much ballyhoo, the Packers traded Favre to the New York Jets.  In return, the Packers received a conditional draft pick.  For now, it's a fairly safe bet that it will be at least a second rounder.  The Jets, who finished a lousy 4-12 season, now having found their "saviour", then released Chad Pennington.  Of course, the woeful Miami Dolphins, having just completed a miserable 1-15 season, and desperately needing some talent, promptly picked him up.

So there we have it.  The Packers make a "crazy" move, going with untested Aaron Rodgers, over Hall of Famer Favre.  The Jets, in need of a new direction, trade for Favre and release Pennington in a debatable move.  And the Dolphins, well, got lucky.  Pennington is a dramatic improvement over any Dolphin QB.

Ok, so that's how we all thought about it back in the beginning of the season.  So, let's take a look at how the decisions panned out, in terms of their actual performances.

The table at the top of this article shows each player's stats for the 2008 season, the 2007 season, and their career #s.

First, let's start with Rodgers.

He is having a very good year, despite the team's troubles.  His QB Rating is a robust 92.1 (league average is 85.3), and his CMI is 0.560, about 0.4 standard deviations above the mean of 0.538.  Not bad for being a first-year starter.  Compare him to three other first-year starters here.

Now, let's take a look at Favre.

He had a career year in 2007.  His QB Rating of 95.7 was only exceeded in his MVP years of 1995 (99.5) and 1996 (95.8).  His third MVP year, 1997, his QB rating was 92.6.  Favre's career QB Rating (leading up to the 2007 season) was 85.0.  It has since improved to 85.9 through 13 games of the 2008 season.  In terms of his CMI, 2007 was by far and away, his best year (0.581), eclipsing his previous best of 0.561 in 1995.  Given that it had been a long time since he had put up that kind of #s, it would be reasonable to assume that it wouldn't necessarily continue into 2008.  Well, he's having a (surprisingly) outstanding year in 2008.  His QB Rating is a healthy 88.2, and his CMI is 0.577 (almost as good as last year).  Is he why the Jets have improved?  Hard to say.  Especially, when you take a look at what Pennington has done this year.

Pennington's #s:

Chad is easily having his best year since his first full year in the league, in 1992.  Back then, he produced a QB Rating of 104.2 and a CMI of 0.644.  Only Tom Brady in 2007 (0.647), and Hall of Famer Troy Aikman, back in 2003 (0.645), have had better seasons.  This year, Chad's #s are a QB Rating of 93.7, and a CMI of 0.618.  Compare these to his career #s of 89.7 and 0.578.  By the way, Pennington's career CMI of 0.578 is the all-time career NFL mark.  Next is Steve Young at 0.565.  Pennington's #s are also, needless to say, a dramatic improvement compared to those of the 2007 Dolphins (QB Rating of 67.4, and CMI of 0.484).

So, what does this all mean?  It means that the Packers weren't crazy when they decided to put their faith in Rodgers, the Jets decision is debatable in giving up a 2nd round pick in 2009, and exchanging a QB who, while having an outstanding year, is not doing as well as the QB they gave up on, and the Dolphins got awfully lucky to end up with Pennington.