Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 2

In my previous post, I pointed out the quarterbacks that have been taken first overall in the NFL draft.  With expectations sky-high for Matthew Stafford to lead the Lions out of the doldrums, let's take a look back and see how these previous #1 picks did.

A quarterback taken first overall is hardly a sure thing.  Of course, it is still too early to figure where the most recent #1 picks will end up, as they have a few years ahead of them.  2 of the 13 are in the Hall of Fame - John Elway and Troy Aikman.  Peyton Manning will be.  Although Elway was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his statistics (as measured by standard deviation from the mean CMI) do not suggest that he was worthy (but that is for another discussion).  Without a doubt, both Manning (Peyton, not Eli), and Aikman have had outstanding careers, and, in looking back, fully deserving of being the #1 pick.  Of the rest, Carson Palmer appears the only quarterback currently justifying his lofty draft status.  Only time will tell if the others turn out to have great, or even good careers (I wouldn't bet on it).  

What does this all mean for Matthew Stafford and the Lions?  Well, it could mean absolutely nothing.  Or, if you believe in statistics, and you believe that NFL scouts' abilities to pick out talent isn't better today than it has been in the past, then the odds are against Stafford.  He is, in all likelihood, not going to be the savior that the Lions seek.  I will have more on this in the next few weeks.

Best 25 Seasons in History - CMI

Here's a list of the 25 best seasons in history in terms of CMI.  This list is different than a similar list I published earlier, based on QB Rating.  As I mentioned earlier, when looking at career CMI (versus career QB Rating), this list favors those quarterbacks who didn't throw a lot of interceptions.  What is particularly interesting, is Tom Brady's 2007 season.  He is rewarded on the QB Rating list (#2) for what he did - he threw 50 touchdowns.  He is rewarded here for what he didn't do - he didn't throw a lot of interceptions.  Also, interesting is that, according to this ranking, Peyton Manning had a better 2003 season than he did in 2004 (although he gets a lot of attention for what he did in 2004).  Again, this list is biased towards the more recent years, which of course suggests Sammy Baugh's season in 1945 must have been out of this world.  I will later on, look at these figures, relative to the time periods in which each of these seasons took place. 

Highest Career CMI

The two tables below show the Top 100 quarterbacks in terms of their career CMI. Surprising? Well, it should be. It doesn't meet with your expectations. Chad Pennington the best quarterback in history, terms of CMI. Well yes. And no. Keep in mind that Chad Pennington is no slouch - he has the 8th best all-time career QB Rating. As a matter of fact, the quarterbacks who have top 10 highest QB Ratings in history, are in the Top 10 in terms of CMI.


I have shown before, that CMI has been steadily increasing over time. So obviously, QBs in more recent years have had higher CMIs than earlier quarterbacks. But the list below does give us a different picture of the top quarterbacks in history compared to a similar list ranked by QB Rating.


CMI does not reward quarterbacks that throw a lot of touchdowns per se (see Dan Marino). It does reward quarterbacks that do not throw a lot of interceptions (see Troy Aikman). Think about the teams that these two quarterbacks played on. Dan Marino never had a quality running back for an extended period of time. Troy Aikman had, well, Emmitt Smith, he of the NFL-record 164 career rushing touchdowns. CMI doesn't penalize a quarterback for sharing the backfield with a good running back.


My goal is to eventually identify the best passers in history, using CMI. The way to do it (in order to account for the ever increasing average CMI), is to relate each quarterback to his peers. I am currently working on methodology that can do this "properly".

Crazy, Debatable and Lucky

Today, the Green Bay Packers lost at home to the Houston Texans, 24-21 on a last-second field goal.  This dropped the Packers to 5-8 for the season, and, for all practical purposes, knocked them out of the playoffs.  I'm sure the Packer faithful will start to think what might have been....

The Packers were coming off a 13-3 season, having won their division handily, and were one win away from the Super Bowl, a loss to the eventual winner, the New York Giants at home.  

Then the soap opera started.  First, Brett Favre, the Packers QB for the past 16 seasons, decided it was time to retire.  The Packers, who had drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005, were prepared.  During the offseason, the Packers named Aaron Rodgers the starting QB for the 2008 season.  Second, Brett Favre decided he wanted to play in 2008.  Nothing wrong with that.  Only that he had "lost" his starting job to Aaron Rodgers.  No way a future hall of famer is going to be carrying a clipboard for an untested, essentially rookie QB.  Not after the season Favre just had had.  After much ballyhoo, the Packers traded Favre to the New York Jets.  In return, the Packers received a conditional draft pick.  For now, it's a fairly safe bet that it will be at least a second rounder.  The Jets, who finished a lousy 4-12 season, now having found their "saviour", then released Chad Pennington.  Of course, the woeful Miami Dolphins, having just completed a miserable 1-15 season, and desperately needing some talent, promptly picked him up.

So there we have it.  The Packers make a "crazy" move, going with untested Aaron Rodgers, over Hall of Famer Favre.  The Jets, in need of a new direction, trade for Favre and release Pennington in a debatable move.  And the Dolphins, well, got lucky.  Pennington is a dramatic improvement over any Dolphin QB.

Ok, so that's how we all thought about it back in the beginning of the season.  So, let's take a look at how the decisions panned out, in terms of their actual performances.

The table at the top of this article shows each player's stats for the 2008 season, the 2007 season, and their career #s.

First, let's start with Rodgers.

He is having a very good year, despite the team's troubles.  His QB Rating is a robust 92.1 (league average is 85.3), and his CMI is 0.560, about 0.4 standard deviations above the mean of 0.538.  Not bad for being a first-year starter.  Compare him to three other first-year starters here.

Now, let's take a look at Favre.

He had a career year in 2007.  His QB Rating of 95.7 was only exceeded in his MVP years of 1995 (99.5) and 1996 (95.8).  His third MVP year, 1997, his QB rating was 92.6.  Favre's career QB Rating (leading up to the 2007 season) was 85.0.  It has since improved to 85.9 through 13 games of the 2008 season.  In terms of his CMI, 2007 was by far and away, his best year (0.581), eclipsing his previous best of 0.561 in 1995.  Given that it had been a long time since he had put up that kind of #s, it would be reasonable to assume that it wouldn't necessarily continue into 2008.  Well, he's having a (surprisingly) outstanding year in 2008.  His QB Rating is a healthy 88.2, and his CMI is 0.577 (almost as good as last year).  Is he why the Jets have improved?  Hard to say.  Especially, when you take a look at what Pennington has done this year.

Pennington's #s:

Chad is easily having his best year since his first full year in the league, in 1992.  Back then, he produced a QB Rating of 104.2 and a CMI of 0.644.  Only Tom Brady in 2007 (0.647), and Hall of Famer Troy Aikman, back in 2003 (0.645), have had better seasons.  This year, Chad's #s are a QB Rating of 93.7, and a CMI of 0.618.  Compare these to his career #s of 89.7 and 0.578.  By the way, Pennington's career CMI of 0.578 is the all-time career NFL mark.  Next is Steve Young at 0.565.  Pennington's #s are also, needless to say, a dramatic improvement compared to those of the 2007 Dolphins (QB Rating of 67.4, and CMI of 0.484).

So, what does this all mean?  It means that the Packers weren't crazy when they decided to put their faith in Rodgers, the Jets decision is debatable in giving up a 2nd round pick in 2009, and exchanging a QB who, while having an outstanding year, is not doing as well as the QB they gave up on, and the Dolphins got awfully lucky to end up with Pennington.