C Scores for Current Quarterbacks

I thought it might be illustrative to show you C scores for all the quarterbacks who qualified in 2009.  With Kurt Warner retiring at the end of last season, it is certain that not all of them will qualify again in 2010, and, almost assuredly some of the remaining won't qualify in 2010.  The difficulty in looking at these players is their body of work.  Not all of them will have a C7 score, our standard measure.  That being said however, it is still worth a look.  Instead of simply limiting the list to those that have a C7 score, we will look at all of their C scores (C1, C4, C7 and C10).

Here's what the list looks like:

Not too many surprises here.

Did you expect someone other than Peyton Manning to be the best passer in the game today?  If you did, I'd love to hear from you, and I'd like to see the analysis.  Peyton Manning is one of the all-time best (see here and here), and most certainly the greatest passer of his era.  Based on C7, I currently have him 7th all-time (C7 of 644), right behind both Fran Tarkenton and Len Dawson who are tied for sixth at 646.  He has an outside chance (I'd say about 25%) of catching Sammy Baugh, who is 5th with a C7 of 654.

In the article I wrote on Kurt Warner (see here), I showed that Warner compares favorably to players like Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.  In my recent post formally introducing C scores I suggested that as far as the Hall of Fame, that Warner appears to be right on the fence.  I certainly would make the argument that Ken Anderson should be in before Warner.

In that same article I also discussed Tom Brady and Drew Brees.  I think if they both played long enough that they would both be in the HOF, and I'm fairly certain that Brees would end up as the better passer.

As far as the next group of players, certainly Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers appear to be on their way to becoming good passers, although they've still got a few years ahead of them before we can make any definitive statements.

And finally, looking further out in to the future, I'd say that Matt Schaub is an up-and-comer, and, really taking a flyer, perhaps Aaron Rodgers can parlay his early success to be considered a great passer.  Only time will tell.

Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 2

In my previous post, I pointed out the quarterbacks that have been taken first overall in the NFL draft.  With expectations sky-high for Matthew Stafford to lead the Lions out of the doldrums, let's take a look back and see how these previous #1 picks did.

A quarterback taken first overall is hardly a sure thing.  Of course, it is still too early to figure where the most recent #1 picks will end up, as they have a few years ahead of them.  2 of the 13 are in the Hall of Fame - John Elway and Troy Aikman.  Peyton Manning will be.  Although Elway was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his statistics (as measured by standard deviation from the mean CMI) do not suggest that he was worthy (but that is for another discussion).  Without a doubt, both Manning (Peyton, not Eli), and Aikman have had outstanding careers, and, in looking back, fully deserving of being the #1 pick.  Of the rest, Carson Palmer appears the only quarterback currently justifying his lofty draft status.  Only time will tell if the others turn out to have great, or even good careers (I wouldn't bet on it).  

What does this all mean for Matthew Stafford and the Lions?  Well, it could mean absolutely nothing.  Or, if you believe in statistics, and you believe that NFL scouts' abilities to pick out talent isn't better today than it has been in the past, then the odds are against Stafford.  He is, in all likelihood, not going to be the savior that the Lions seek.  I will have more on this in the next few weeks.