AFC and NFC Championships - Predictions for Sunday

Like I said last week, I can't stay away from building predictive models, so here it is - last week's model applied to this week's championship games - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals, and Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers. I have included other predictions - these are from 3 sites/blogs I frequently follow. I have a lot of respect for the work these guys do. Their models of course, are much more sophisticated than mine - but give me a year, and I'll catch up! Also, I show you what Vegas thinks, just for sake of comparison.

Now, don't get fooled.  Even though we all independently seem to agree on predicting who will win (lone exception being advancednflstats prediction re: Eagles), this does not mean that these teams will win.  There is a big difference between a predicted outcome and actual outcome.  Outcomes in football games are very difficult to predict.  There are few scoring opportunities for each team during a game, and each score has huge variation (generally 3 pts or 7 pts).  There are numerous factors that are simply unpredictable, or, if they are predictable, have a very high degree of uncertainty around them.  In any case, the predictions are below.

NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - Predicting the Winners

My intention with this blog was not to get into the prediction business, but I can't help myself. It is what I am trained to do. I like building models, and of course, "predicting" is a natural outcome. Although my focus with this blog is quarterbacks specifically, I thought I'd go out on a limb and expose a new game predicting model that I'm working on. Admittedly, my model doesn't have the sophistication of the models built by guys like Brian Burke over at AdvancedNFLStats.com, or Aaron Schatz and his team at the Football Outsiders (see their AFC predictions here, and their NFC predictions here). That all being said, I think I will continue to work on it over time, and, why not, let's put it to the test to see how mine stacks up.


The table below shows my predicted outcomes, assuming each team behaves 'as expected'. Of course, the football isn't round, and funny things happen when the ball bounces. The weather is another element that is not incorporated explicitly into the model.


Arizona at Carolina - All three of us agree that this is the 'easiest' game to predict - with Carolina winning handily. Vegas oddsmakers say a spread of 9.5/10 with the over/under at 48.5/49.0. My model concurs.


Baltimore at Tennessee - Should be a close game. FO calls it for Baltimore, and ANS calls it for Tennessee. My model suggests Tennessee in a close game. Vegas oddsmakers say a spread of 3.0, with the over/under at 34.0/35.0. I agree with the spread, but my model suggests more points (perhaps I need more work on my model)!


Philadelphia at NY Giants - Awfully close game - closest of all the games this weekend - FO on the one hand says Philly, but then he hedges and says its going to be really, really close (a pick 'em). ANS is a little more bullish on the Giants (he also hedges his bet and says, it's a 50-50 outcome if analyzed based on the whole season). My model agrees with both of these models/predictors, and says Philly in a squeaker. Vegas says G-men by 4, with the over/under at 40.0. My model says closer game than that, and a few more points (remember, Vegas needs to take 'perception' into account, as all they care about is getting half the money on one side and half on the other).


San Diego at Pittsburgh - FO says Pittsburgh, and so does ANS. I agree, with my model suggesting Pittsburgh buy more than a field goal. The oddsmakers in Vegas suggest a 5.5/6.0 point game, with the over/under at 37.5/38.0. I think it's a bit closer, but also a few more points.


This is the first public exposure of my model. I'll see how it does this weekend, and continue to build/improve it. Hopefully, at some point in the 2009 season, I'll be comfortable enough to share more details as to the inputs. Suffice it to say that I feel comfortable enough to expose it today.


Let's play the games!


We can evaluate how we did on Monday.