Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 4

In my last post, we looked at quarterbacks and their expected performance as compared to where they were drafted. We concluded that their on-field performance cannot be attributed to their draft position, and perhaps those drafted earlier play a bit longer. There definitely was a correlation between draft order, and their likelihood of actually playing in the NFL (playing as defined by throwing enough passes in a given year to qualify statistically).

All we really looked at in the previous post were averages over the past 30 years. We didn't spend any time looking at individual quarterbacks. In this post, we'll do so. We'll take a stab at answering the following question: Which quarterbacks have been the surprises, or the diamonds in the rough? These would be the quarterbacks that, when drafted, either had little likelihood of actually playing in the NFL, or, even when thought that they would play, surprised us as to how well they played and/or how long they played. These would also be quarterbacks that were drafted early in the draft (perhaps even in the first round), but worked out much better than the earlier picks.

Here is my list of the 10 best surprises of the NFL Draft over the past 30 years. Admittedly, it is somewhat subjective, but I do use objective criteria to determine the list.

10. Matt Hasselbeck (1998, 6th Round, 187th Overall Pick, 6th Quarterback Drafted) - Hasselbeck was drafted by the Green Bay Packers out of Boston College behind Peyton Manning (1), Ryan Leaf (2), Charlie Batch (60), Jonathan Quinn (86), and Brian Griese (91). Hasselbeck was traded by the Packers to the Seattle Seahawks in 2001. He has thrown enough passes to have qualified in 7 seasons, and his CMI has averaged 0.14 standard deviations above the mean over that period. His best year was in 2005, where he completed 65.5% of his passes and only had 2.0% of his pass attempts intercepted, a performance good enough to be 1.50 standard deviations above the mean.

9. Brian Griese (1998, 3rd Round, 91st Overall Pick, 5th Quarterback Drafted) - Griese was drafted by the Denver Broncos out of Michigan behind Peyton Manning (1), Ryan Leaf (2), Charlie Batch (60), and Jonathan Quinn (86). Griese became the starter in 1999 following the retirement of John Elway, and in 6 qualified seasons his CMI has averaged 0.42 standard deviations above the mean. His best season was 2000, where he completed 64.3% of his passes and only had 1.2% of his passes intercepted, worthy of being 2.04 standard deviations above the mean.

8. Neil O'Donnell (1990, 3rd Round, 70th Overall Pick, 5th Quarterback Drafted) - O'Donnell was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers out of the University of Maryland behind Jeff George (1), Andre Ware (7), Tom Hodson (59), and Peter Tom Willis (63). He started in 1991, qualified in 5 seasons for the Steelers, and threw enough passes in 2 more seasons - one for the Jets in 1997 and one for Cincinnati in 1998. He averaged 0.47 standard deviations better than the mean over those 7 years, and his best year was 1998, when he completed 61.8% of his passes, and was intercepted 1.2% of the time, good enough to finish 1.52 standard deviations above the mean.

7. Trent Green (1993, 8th Round, 222nd Overall Pick, 8th Quarterback Drafted) - Green was drafted by the San Diego Chargers out of Indiana University behind Drew Bledsoe (1), Rick Mirer (2), Billy Joe Hobert (58), Mark Brunell (118), Gino Torretta (192), Alex Van Pelt (216), and Elvis Grbac (219). He was the last quarterback drafted in 1993. He first threw enough passes to qualify in 1998 for the Washington Redskins. He qualified in 6 seasons altogether, the last 5 with the Kansas City Chiefs from 2001-2005. Over those 6 seasons, his CMI averaged 0.26 standard deviations above the mean. His best year came in 2003, when he completed 63.1% of his passes, and had 2.3% intercepted, good enough to finish 1.18 standard deviations better than the mean.

6. Mark Brunell (1993, 5th Round, 118th Overall Pick, 4th Quarterback Drafted) - Brunell was drafted by the Green Bay Packers out of the University of Washington behind Drew Bledsoe (1), Rick Mirer (2), and Billy Joe Hobert (58). He was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 1995. He qualified in 8 straight seasons there, and then 2 more in 2005 and 2006 for the Redskins. Over those 10 seasons, his CMI averaged 0.64 standard deviations above the mean. His best year was 1997, where he completed 60.7% of his passes, and had 1.6% of his passes intercepted - good enough to be 1.23 standard deviations better than the mean.

5. Rich Gannon (1987, 4th Round, 98th Overall Pick, 7th Quarterback Drafted) - Gannon was drafted by the New England Patriots from the University of Delaware behind Vinny Testaverde (1), Kelly Stouffer (6), Chris Miller (13), Jim Harbaugh (26), Cody Carlson (64), and Mark Vlasic (88). He was traded to the Minnesota Vikings and qualified in three years (1990-1992) while there. He threw enough passes to qualify again in 1998 with Kansas City, and then from 1999-2002 with the Oakland Raiders. Over the 10 qualifying seasons, he averaged 0.64 standard deviations better than the mean. His best year was in 2001, when he completed 65.8% of his passes, and only had 1.6% of his attempts intercepted. This was good enough to be 2.54 standard deviations better than the mean that year.

4. Dan Marino (1983, 1st Round, 27th Overall Pick, 6th Quarterback Drafted) - This was the "Year of the Quarterback". Marino was drafted by the Miami Dolphins out of the University of Pittsburgh behind John Elway (1), Todd Blackledge (7), Jim Kelly (14), Tony Eason (15), and Ken O'Brien (24). He started immediately, and went on to throw enough passes in 16 different seasons, averaging 0.51 standard deviations above the mean CMI. His best year was 1984, where he completed 64.2% of his passes, and had 3.0% of his passes intercepted. This was good to finish 1.28 standard deviations above the mean CMI that year. Dan Marino was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1995.

3. Brad Johnson (1992, 9th Round, 227th Overall Pick, 13th Quarterback Drafted) - Johnson was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings out of Florida State behind David Klingler (6), Tommy Maddox (25), Matt Blundin (40), Tony Sacca (46), Craig Erickson (86), Casey Weldon (102), Will Furer (107), Chris Hakel (112), Jeff Blake (166), Kent Graham (211), Bucky Richardson (220), and Mike Pawlawski (222). He qualified in 9 different seasons - first with Minnesota (1996-1997), then the Redskins (1999-2000), then Tampa Bay (2001-2003), and finally with the Vikings again (2005-2006). Over those 9 seasons, his CMI averaged 0.73 standard deviations better than the mean. 2005 was his best year, where he completed 62.6% of his passes and only 1.4% of his attempts were intercepted, a performance good enough to be 1.32 standard deviations better than the mean CMI that year.

2. Tom Brady (2000, 6th Round, 199th Overall Pick, 7th Quarterback Drafted) - Brady was selected by the New England Patriots from the University of Michigan behind Chad Pennington (18), Giovanni Carmazzi (65), Chris Redman (75), Tee Martin (163), Marc Bulger (168), and Spergon Wynn (183). After replacing an injured Drew Bledsoe in the second game of the 2001 season, he started every game until he got injured during the first game of the 2008 season. Over the 7 year period from 2001-2007, his CMI was good enough to average 0.82 standard deviations above the mean. His best year came in 2007, when he completed 68.9% of his passes, and was intercepted 1.4% of the time, good enough for 2.14 standard deviations above the mean.  Tom Brady will likely get into the Hall of Fame.

1. Joe Montana (1979, 3rd Round, 82nd Overall Pick, 4th Quarterback Drafted) - Montana was drafted by the San Francisco Forty Niners from the University of Notre Dame behind Jack Thompson (3), Phil Simms (7), and Steve Fuller (23). Although he played every single game in the 1979 season, he only threw 23 passes that year. Beginning in 1980, he qualified every year until 1990, when injuries slowed him down. He was eventually traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, where he played for 2 more seasons. Over those 13 years, his performances on the field, he averaged 1.54 standard deviations above the mean, including the remarkable feat of never having a season below the mean. His best season was 1989, when he completed 70.2% of his passes and had 2.1% of his pass attempts intercepted, a performance so good relative to his peers, that it ranked 2.96 standard deviations above the mean.  Montana was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2000.

Now that's a pretty good list!

Super Bowl Quarterbacks

Super Bowl XLIII is tomorrow.  So, I thought it might be a good exercise to review quarterback performances in each of the past 42 Super Bowls.  The first table below shows how each of the starting quarterbacks did.  Here are a few observations.

Quarterbacks in the Super Bowl make lots of mistakes.  Look at the quarterbacks on the losing team.  Until Super Bowl XXV between the Giants and Bills, every starting quarterback on a losing team had thrown at least one interception.  As a matter of fact, there have been only 4 times - Super Bowl XXV between the NY Giants and Buffalo Bills, Super Bowl XXXIV between the St Louis Rams and Tennessee Titans, Super Bowl XXXVIII between the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers and last year's Super Bowl XLII between the NY Giants and New England Patriots, where the losing team's quarterback did not throw an interception.  When you think about each of these four games, one could make the argument that they all rank as the best played, most exciting and closest Super Bowls of all time.  

Starting QBs on the losing teams have thrown a total of 83 interceptions in the 42 games.  This compares to only 22 for starting QBs on the winning teams.  Don't throw an interception, and you give your team an excellent chance of winning the game.  Conversely, throw a pick, and you significantly reduce your team's chances of winning.  

Nine times the losing team's QB threw 3 picks; 4 times they threw 4 picks, and in Super Bowl XXXVII between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Oakland Raiders, Rich Gannon threw 5 picks.  That's 14 times in 42 games where a QB threw 3 or more INTs.  There's a 1/3 chance that tomorrow one of the two QBs will throw at least 3 picks!  

Three times the winning team's QB has thrown for more than 2 INTs.  In Super Bowl XIV, Pittsburgh's Terry Bradshaw threw 3, in Super Bowl XVII, Washington's Joe Theismann threw 2, and in Super Bowl XL, Ben Roethlisberger threw 2 INTs.  Note that Johnny Unitas threw 2 INTs in Super Bowl V as a back-up in a win over Dallas.

There have been 9 occasions where the winning team's QB threw for 3 or more TDs.  4 times they have thrown 3, 3 times they have thrown 4, and in Super Bowl XXIV, San Francisco's Joe Montana threw 5 TDs and in Super Bowl XXIX, San Francisco's Steve Young threw for 6 TDs against the San Diego Chargers.  It appears that not throwing INTs is probably more important than throwing TDs.  

The classic example of this is Super Bowl III, where NY Jets' Joe Namath guaranteed a victory against the Baltimore Colts.  He delivered.  He was named the game's MVP.  Most people don't realize that he didn't threw a single TD in that game.  Most importantly, he didn't throw an INT either.  

The table below shows (in my opinion) the 10 best and 10 worst performances by a starting QB over the past 42 Super Bowls.  It's difficult to compare QBs over time.  This is because the most commonly used measure to evaluate a QBs passing performance, the NFL Passer Rating system, has shown that the league average has been increasing over time (see here for the details).  

I have come up with a measure, CMI (Completions Minus Interceptions, calculated as Completion % - 3 * Interception Percentage), which I believe is a better measure of a QBs passing performance.  However, this measure also has the same problem that the Passer Rating formula has, in that it also shows that the league average has been increasing over time (see here).  One way to adjust for this trend is to relate each QBs performance in a Super Bowl to the overall league average for that year.  Then, one can compare that particular measure across Super Bowls.  If I had game-by-game data, I would not only relate the measure to the mean, but would also take into account the standard deviation.  However, in the absence of game-by-game data going back 42 years, the measure relative to the mean shall suffice.  Also, I eliminated from consideration any QB who attempted fewer than 15 passes during the game.

With the technical stuff all out of the way, the single best performance by a QB in a Super Bowl is Phil Simms for the NY Giants in Super Bowl XXI, when he went a near-perfect 22 of 25 with no INTs.  Interestingly, his QB Rating for that game was 150.9, close to the perfect rating of 158.3.  Steve Young's 6 TD effort doesn't show up in the Top 10, although Joe Montana's 5 TD effort does.

At the other end of the Spectrum, Craig Morton's 4 for 15 effort with 4 INTs in Super Bowl XII is the absolute worst performance by a QB in a Super Bowl by any measure.  He also has the dubious distinction of showing up twice on the 10 Worst Performances list.  Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh's QB in tomorrow's Super Bowl XLIII, is the only QB who shows up on the 10 Worst list, whose team actually won the game - Super Bowl XL against Seattle.

Is Matt Cassel The New Tom Brady?

Matt Cassel of the New England Patriots is having a good year.  He is 13th in the NFL in Passer Rating, after 14 games.  And, in what may seem eerily similar to one Mr. Tom Brady, he replaced Brady in the first game of the season, when Brady was lost to the season as a result of a leg injury.  Flashback to  September 2001, and the aforementioned Brady, replaced Drew Bledsoe as the quarterback of the New England Patriots.  The rest, as they say, is history.

That year, Tom Brady had a great year.  A dream year.  Replacing Bledsoe in the 2nd game of the season, he went on to lead the Patriots to an 11-5 regular season record, and on to win Super Bowl XXXVI, 20-17 over the St. Louis Rams.  Brady was selected to the Pro Bowl, and was named Super Bowl MVP.  He finished 6th in the NFL in passing, with a Passer Rating of 86.5, and he had a CMI of 0.552 (see the table below).  That year, the league average CMI was 0.497, and his CMI was 1.25 Standard Deviations above the average.  Only Rich Gannon (2.54), Kurt Warner (1.57), and Jeff Garcia (1.33) had a better year that year.  

The graph below the table shows that he started out a little slow (understandably so), and played fairly consistently throughout the year, with a few spectacular (and one not so spectacular) games thrown in.  He didn't throw an interception in his first five games, but then threw 4 in a 31-20 loss at Denver in game 6.  All in all, he didn't throw a pick in nine games, the Patriots going 7-2 in those games.

So, how is Matt Cassel doing trying to imitate Tom Brady?

As mentioned earlier, his current Passer Rating is 87.1, a shade higher than Tom Brady's 86.5.  His CMI is 0.568, also better than Brady's 0.552.  He has six games to-date where he has not thrown an interception, leading the Pats to a 5-1 record in those games.  So how does Cassel's CMI of 0.568 compare to Brady's 0.552?  This is where the comparison ends.  In 2008, the league average CMI is 0.542, so Cassel's performance is 0.49 Standard Deviations above the average.  Good, but not great.  Good for 9th out of 30 quarterbacks who have thrown enough passes to qualify.  The table below shows a game-by-game comparison of Cassel's performances compared to Brady's 2001 season.