Is Peyton Manning Having a Good Year?

Peyton Manning had a great game last night against the Jaguars, leading the Colts to a 31-24 victory, and a spot in the playoffs.  That makes it three games in a row now that he hasn't thrown an interception.  During that span, he has completed over 80% of his passes.

However, it seems to me that he hasn't received his proper due this year.  Perhaps it is because he has been rather mediocre until this recent stretch.  He did have three terrible games (week 3 at home against these same Jaguars, where he threw 2 picks and the Colts lost 23-21, week 7 on the road against the the Packers, where he threw two picks, and the Colts lost 34-14, and week 13, on the road against the Browns, where he again threw 2 picks, yet the Colts won 10-6).  He has thrown 2 picks in two other games this season, making it a total of 5 games this year where he has thrown at least two picks.  To truly appreciate how good Manning has been, consider this: Since 2002, he has never had a season where he threw 2 or more picks in a game in more than 2 games.

The table below compares each of Manning's years in the NFL.  For sake of comparison, I have included the league average CMI for qualified passers only - i.e. those who attempted at least 256 passes in a season (224 for the 14 games completed so far in the 2008 season).  The chart illustrates that the league average CMI has been steadily increasing during these years, and Manning continues to perform better than the league (he has done this every year, except for his rookie season - 1998).

From this data, I would conclude that he is indeed having a good year, at least as compared to the league.  He is having a typical year for him.

In the table below, the column "Manning CMI rel to League Avg" is calculated as follows:

Manning CMI Rel = [Manning CMI - League Avg CMI] / Std Dev of League Avg CMI

For example, for 2008,

Manning CPI Rel = [0.599 - 0.542] / 0.052 = 1.08