Debating the 2009 Pro-Bowl Selections

Earlier this week, the NFL announced the rosters for the 2009 Pro Bowl.  Representing the AFC are QBs Peyton Manning, making his ninth appearance, Jay Cutler, making his first appearance, and Brett Favre, making his tenth appearance, but first time representing the AFC.  Representing the NFC are QBs Kurt Warner, making his fourth appearance, and Drew Brees and Eli Manning, who is making his first appearance.  This will be the first time that brothers playing quarterback have been selected to the Pro Bowl.

I am really not sure what criteria the voters (the players) use to select these quarterbacks.  Some probably use statistics, such as the quarterback rating, even though no one actually understands the QB rating or how it is derived.  Some probably look at the team's performance, even though the quarterback may have little to do with the team's actual performance, or won-loss record.  And then some may simply be basing it on some other factors, such as like-ability, or popularity.  Based on the selections, it appears that voters reward players for a good team record and # of touchdowns thrown (to the average fan, these two factors seem like reasonable criteria, I'm sure).  I of course disagree, but then again, that is the reason for this post.  

The Pro Bowl is meant to be a reward for performing exceptionally well on the field, and, since it is voted on by the players, a recognition from one's teammates as well as competitors.  So how do these selections stack up?

Before I get into the details, a quick refresher on the NFL passer rating calculation.  I'll keep the math simple.  The NFL passer rating is made up of four different components (see here for the details), each with a maximum possible value of 2.375, and a minimum possible value of 0.  The four components are given equal weight in the calculation of the rating.  The four components are:

Pass Completion percentage

Yards per Completion

TDs per Attempt (Touchdown percentage)

INTs per Attempt (Interception percentage)

In the table below, I show how each of the quarterbacks scored on each component, how that translated to their QB rating, and their respective ranks (amongst each of the four components as well as the final QB rating).  I also include CMI for each quarterback, and I have previously discussed my preference for CMI versus the current NFL passer rating formula.  The players shaded in green were the ones voted in.  The players shaded in blue are my obvious snubs, and the players shaded in orange one could argue deserve to go.

Ok, now on to the #s.

AFC

Peyton Manning - As I mentioned in a previous post, he is having another great year.  He has a passer rating of 90.3 (through 14 games).  In the AFC, he ranks 5th, 7th, 4th and 6th in each of the components, good enough for 4th in terms of passer rating.  He is 3rd in the AFC in terms of # of touchdowns passes.  He has led the Colts to a 10-4 record.  He is 2nd in the AFC in terms of CMI.  Very difficult to argue against the selection.

Brett Favre - For the four components, he is ranked 1st, 9th, 2nd and 16th, good enough for 7th overall in passer rating in the AFC.  He has taken the Jets to a 9-5 record, and he has thrown 21 TDs, fourth amongst AFC quarterbacks.  He has also thrown 17 INTs, worst in the NFL.  He ranks 7th in the AFC in CMI.  Based on statistics, should not have made it.  The only explanation is that he is probably perceived to have helped turn around the Jets, and he has thrown a lot of touchdowns.

Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler got off to a red-hot start, and has since cooled off.  He ranks 9th, 4th, 3rd and 11th on each of the four components, placing him 5th in the AFC in Passer Rating.  The Broncos are 8-6, and his 24 touchdowns are second only to Philip Rivers' 28.  His CMI places him 9th in the AFC.  Based on statistics, again hard to see why he got voted into the Pro Bowl.

NFC

Kurt Warner - He led the Cardinals to a 8-6 record and the NFC West Division title.  He ranks 1st, 4th, 4th and 7th in each of the components, good enough for 2nd in the NFC in passer rating.  He has thrown 26 touchdowns, 2nd best in the NFC.  He ranks 2nd in CMI in the NFC.  Based on the #s, good enough to go.

Drew Brees - Started out blazing, but has had a couple of mediocre games recently.  Has led the Saints to a 7-7 record, and has thrown a league-high 28 touchdowns.  He has also thrown an NFC-high 16 interceptions.  He ranks 3rd, 3rd, 2nd and 10th in each of the components, good enough for 4th in the NFC in terms of passer rating.  He ranks 4th in CMI.  An acceptable choice for the Pro Bowl.

Eli Manning - He has led the NY Giants to an 11-3 record, coming off that Giant upset in last year's Super Bowl against the previously undefeated Pats.  He has thrown 20 touchdown passes, only 6th-best in the NFC.  His ranks in the four components are 10th, 11th, 5th and 5th respectively - making his passer rating only 9th-best in the NFC.  His CMI rank is 10th.  Clearly a sentimental pick here.  I would not have voted him in.

In summary,

Peyton Manning - In

Brett Favre - Out

Jay Cutler - Out

Kurt Warner - In

Drew Brees - In

Eli Manning - Out

Obvious Snubs

There are two, in my mind - one each in the AFC and NFC, respectively.  

In the AFC, Chad Pennington is an obvious snub.  Clearly, he doesn't get attention amongst his peers, because he doesn't throw a lot of touchdowns.  I've never understood why throwing a touchdown is so important to determining how good a passer someone is.  CMI, which has a 97% correlation with the current NFL passer rating, doesn't include touchdowns.  Pennington has thrown for only 14 touchdowns.  He has led the Miami Dolphins to a 9-5 record (keep in mind that Miami only won 1 game last season).  Based on the four components, he ranks 3rd, 3rd, 10th (the component associated with TDs), and 1st, good enough for second-best in the AFC in passer rating.  He ranks 1st in CMI.

In the NFC, Jeff Garcia is an obvious snub.  Although he has led the Bucs to a 9-5 record, he suffers from the same 'disease' that Pennington has.  He doesn't get a lot of recognition around the league for how good he is because he doesn't throw a lot of touchdowns.  He has 'only' thrown 10 touchdowns.  That hurts him in terms of passer rating, as he ranks, 2nd, 7th, 12th and 1st in each of the components, good for 3rd in the NFC in terms of passer rating.  He ranks #1 in the NFC in CMI.

Possibly Overlooked

In the AFC, both Matt Schaub and Philip Rivers have possibly been overlooked.  Matt Schaub has led the Texans to a 7-7 record, and has a passer rating of 92.7, 3rd-best in the AFC.  In terms of the four components, he ranks 2nd, 2nd, 6th and 13th, respectively.  He is 3rd in the AFC in CMI.  Philip Rivers, although having a good year (in terms of the traditional touchdowns thrown), suffers from the Chargers being 6-8.  He leads the NFL in passer rating at 101.4, and leads the NFL in touchdowns thrown with 28.  He ranks 6th, 1st, 1st and 7th in each of the components, and ranks 4th in the AFC in CMI.

In the NFC, Jason Campbell and Aaron Rodgers have both been overlooked in my opinion.  Campbell's Redskins are 7-7 on the season, and he has thrown 'only' 12 touchdowns.  He ranks 7th, 12th, 13th, and 2nd in each of the four components, good enough for only 10th in terms of passer rating.  He ranks 3rd in CMI.  What hurts Rodgers most is the fact that the Packers are 5-9.  He ranks 4th in the NFC in touchdowns thrown, with 23.  He ranks 4th, 6th, 3rd and 9th in the four components, good for 6th in the NFC in passer rating.  His CMI rank is also 6th.

In looking at all these quarterbacks, something struck me, and that is the exceptional seasons that Garcia, Campbell and Pennington are having in terms of the infrequency of interceptions thrown (see here for their stats).  I'll have a post on this later.

It appears to me that what gets attention (and votes) is winning and throwing touchdowns.  At some point I will do an extensive analysis showing the relationship between a quarterback and winning.  What doesn't get attention (but should) is interceptions thrown.  

The table below shows the stats for the NFL's quarterbacks through 14 games this season (only those who 'qualified' (i.e. those throwing at least 224 passes) are shown.