Sunday, January 4, 2009

Jets-Dolphins - You Could See it Coming

I wanted to post this the day before the Jets-Dolphins season ending game.  However, I was not able to, but, the analysis still has merit.  Going into the game, looking at the way the 2008 NFL season had progressed for both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, you could see this coming.  The actual result was not much of a shocker as you might otherwise had been led to believe.  Take a look at the table below - in particular, look at both Brett Favre's and Chad Pennington's last 4 games, and then look at the projected performance.  I really wasn't too far off.  There's no projection that would have suggested that Favre was going to throw 3 picks.  However, you could see at least 2 picks fairly easily, given that in 80% of the games this season he had thrown at least 1 pick, and in those games, he was about 50-50 to throw more than 1 pick.

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