AFC and NFC Championships - Predictions for Sunday

Like I said last week, I can't stay away from building predictive models, so here it is - last week's model applied to this week's championship games - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals, and Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers. I have included other predictions - these are from 3 sites/blogs I frequently follow. I have a lot of respect for the work these guys do. Their models of course, are much more sophisticated than mine - but give me a year, and I'll catch up! Also, I show you what Vegas thinks, just for sake of comparison.

Now, don't get fooled.  Even though we all independently seem to agree on predicting who will win (lone exception being advancednflstats prediction re: Eagles), this does not mean that these teams will win.  There is a big difference between a predicted outcome and actual outcome.  Outcomes in football games are very difficult to predict.  There are few scoring opportunities for each team during a game, and each score has huge variation (generally 3 pts or 7 pts).  There are numerous factors that are simply unpredictable, or, if they are predictable, have a very high degree of uncertainty around them.  In any case, the predictions are below.