I thought it might be illustrative to show you C scores for all the quarterbacks who qualified in 2009. With Kurt Warner retiring at the end of last season, it is certain that not all of them will qualify again in 2010, and, almost assuredly some of the remaining won't qualify in 2010. The difficulty in looking at these players is their body of work. Not all of them will have a C7 score, our standard measure. That being said however, it is still worth a look. Instead of simply limiting the list to those that have a C7 score, we will look at all of their C scores (C1, C4, C7 and C10).
Here's what the list looks like:
Not too many surprises here.
Did you expect someone other than Peyton Manning to be the best passer in the game today? If you did, I'd love to hear from you, and I'd like to see the analysis. Peyton Manning is one of the all-time best (see here and here), and most certainly the greatest passer of his era. Based on C7, I currently have him 7th all-time (C7 of 644), right behind both Fran Tarkenton and Len Dawson who are tied for sixth at 646. He has an outside chance (I'd say about 25%) of catching Sammy Baugh, who is 5th with a C7 of 654.
In the article I wrote on Kurt Warner (see here), I showed that Warner compares favorably to players like Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. In my recent post formally introducing C scores I suggested that as far as the Hall of Fame, that Warner appears to be right on the fence. I certainly would make the argument that Ken Anderson should be in before Warner.
In that same article I also discussed Tom Brady and Drew Brees. I think if they both played long enough that they would both be in the HOF, and I'm fairly certain that Brees would end up as the better passer.
As far as the next group of players, certainly Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers appear to be on their way to becoming good passers, although they've still got a few years ahead of them before we can make any definitive statements.
And finally, looking further out in to the future, I'd say that Matt Schaub is an up-and-comer, and, really taking a flyer, perhaps Aaron Rodgers can parlay his early success to be considered a great passer. Only time will tell.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
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2 comments:
I really like your site, particularly the part about simplifying the QB rating. I however have a different take. Your research shows that TD Pct has no effect on QB rating. I wrote a post on it on my site and linked back to your blog. I would love to talk to you about it, but couldn't find any contact info on your site. My email is andy at footballproslive.com (sorry to spam your comments, I didn't know how else to contact you). I would love to hear your response and maybe even write an article for our site if you're interested.
Dear Andy,
Thank for your comment.
The way quarterbacks are measured is certainly an interesting debate. Many smart folks have some very good ideas. Certainly the way the NFL does it is outdated. I have tried to simplify it, but have found the solution to be unsatisfactory at this point. I will continue to work on it though, as I think I'm on the right path.
I would love the opportunity to contribute to your site.
Cheers,
Kiran
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