Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Pro Football's All-Time Best Passers

Now that I've got a method for evaluating a quarterback as a passer and can use it compare his career to that of others, I thought it might be illustrative to compare the Top 50 on my list to how they rank on the all-time passer rating list provided by the Pro Football Hall of Fame.  The list provided by the Hall only includes those passers who've attempted 1,500 or more passes in their career.  Also, as of today (April 27, 2010), the Hall of Fame list does not include stats from the 2009 season.  As I've mentioned in the past, the HOF list unfairly penalizes those players who played in an era where passing was secondary.  Why?  Because of the restriction of limiting it to only those passers attempting 1,500 or more passes.  So, to supplement the list from the HOF, I'll show you their passer rating ranking based on my list of 416 passers, which is a broader and more inclusive list, especially of those who played in the 1930's - 1970's.  My list includes any quarterback who qualified in at least one season.

Here's the top 50 list of All-Time Best Passers:


My list of 50 not only covers the entire spectrum of pro football history - from the beginning in the 1930's to current players, but it also presents the players who played in earlier years fairly, and in context.  The question isn't whether Joe Montana was a better passer than Sammy Baugh, but, whether Joe Montana relative to Montana's peers, was a better passer than Sammy Baugh was relative to Baugh's peers.  The HOF list can be used to answer that question, since a measure relative to a fixed standard (in other words the passer rating system) can be used to do that.  However, the HOF list cannot be used to answer the next question - how does one compare Sammy Baugh to Joe Montana given that they both played an entirely different game, with different rules and circumstances.  A fixed standard cannot solve that particular puzzle.  The use of a mean and standard deviation by year (z scores) which in turn we convert to percentile ranks can be used.  C7 is simply a quarterback's 7 best years as a passer in terms of percentile rank summed up.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

TOM BRADY #22 ??? IM NOT A PATRIOT, BUT K.Y.S ! YOUR POLE JUST LOST ALOT OF VALITITY !?!

Ben said...

I agree! Tom Brady should be higher! But thanks for this article, always interesting fans opinion on topics like this one.
I'm a Bears fan and we only have J. Cutler...
Anyway, just found a cool Bears shirt recently: http://store.chicagotribune.com/sports/nfl/bears/apparel.html

Wanted to share it. Thanks