Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 5

This post is the corollary to the previous post.  That is, we will attempt to answer the following question: which quarterbacks drafted in the past 30 years turned out to be the biggests busts?  Naturally, these would be the quarterbacks drafted with really high expectations - those that were drafted in the first round, or better yet, drafted in the Top 10, or even better, #1 overall, perhaps.  These cases of buyers remorse are further exacerbated when quarterbacks taken later (much later in some cases) turn out to have far superior careers.  

The list you see below, along with the list in my previous post, should illustrate the difficulty of identifying who might be the best NFL quarterbacks before their first game.  It is certainly an inexact science.  It is why I question the merits of a) picking a quarterback so early in the draft, and b) paying them such large sums of money before they ever throw a pass.  I will explore these questions in my next post.  

In the meantime, here's my list of the 10 quarterbacks who were the biggest busts of the NFL Draft over the past 30 years.  Unlike the biggest surprises, this list is a bit more difficult to assess.  For the surprises, one merely looks at the relevant statistics, and then finds an appropriate weight (for example, how much weight to assign to longevity).  For the busts, how does one quantify those that don't play (or don't play enough).  In my system of quantifying quarterback passing statistics, one must throw enough passes in a given season to qualify to be ranked (in other words, I don't rank every player that threw a pass as that would be meaningless).  For that reason, I shall merely list the players, and not rank them, starting with the earliest drafts.

The List

Jack Thompson (1979, 1st Round, 3rd Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Thompson was drafted out of Washington State by the Cincinnati Bengals.  He was taken ahead of Phil Simms (7), and Joe Montana (82).  He qualified in 1 year.  He makes the list not because of his statistics as much as he was drafted so far in advance of the the quarterback who arguably was the greatest passer of all time.

Rich Campbell (1981, 1st Round, 6th Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Campbell was drafted out of The University of California by the Green Bay Packers.  He was taken ahead of Neil Lomax (33).  Campbell didn't attempt enough passes in any year to qualify, and threw a total of 68 passes in two different seasons.

Art Schlichter (1982, 1st Round, 4th Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Schlichter was drafted out of Ohio State by the Baltimore Colts.  The Chicago Bears selected Jim McMahon (5)  out of Brigham Young one pick later.  What bust list would be complete without Schlichter, known more famously for his gambling addictions.

Todd Blackledge (1983, 1st Round, 7th Overall Pick, 2nd Quarterback Drafted) - Blackledge was drafted out of Penn State by the Kansas City Chiefs.  Quarterbacks taken after Blackledge that year include Jim Kelly (14), Tony Eason (15), Ken O'Brien (24) and Dan Marino (27).  Todd qualified in 1984, a year when he completed 50.0% of his passes and had 3.7% of his attempts picked off.  John Elway was drafted 1st Overall that year.  Elway, Kelly and Marino are all in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Kelly Stouffer (1987, 1st Round, 6th Overall Pick, 2nd Quarterback Drafted) - Stouffer was drafted out of Colorado State by the St. Louis Cardinals.  Notable quarterbacks taken after Stouffer in that year's draft includes Jim Harbaugh (26), Rich Gannon (98) and Steve Beuerlein (110). Stouffer did not attempt enough passes in any given year to qualify, and threw a total of 437 passes over the course of four different seasons.

Heath Shuler (1994, 1st Round, 3rd Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Shuler was drafted out of Tennessee by the Washington Redskins.  He qualified in 1 year (in 1994), when he completed 45.3% of his passes, and had 4.5% of his passes intercepted, a poor enough performance to be -2.54 standard deviations below the mean.

Ryan Leaf (1998, 1st Round, 2nd Overall Pick, 2nd Quarterback Drafted) - Leaf was almost picked by the Indianapolis Colts.  Instead, they went with some fellow named Peyton Manning.  The San Diego Chargers drafted Leaf out of Washington State.  Successful quarterbacks drafted following Leaf that year are Brian Griese (91) and Matt Hasselbeck (187).  In 2000, Leaf completed 50.0% of his passes, and had a 5.6% interception rate, a performance so poor it was -2.81 standard deviations below the mean.

Tim Couch (1999, 1st Round, 1st Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Couch was drafted out of Kentucky by the Cleveland Browns.  That year, the following quarterbacks were also drafted.  Donovan McNabb (2), and Daunte Culpepper (11).  Couch played enough to qualify in 3 seasons with an average standard deviation of -0.58.  His best year was in 1999, when he finished when he completed 55.9% of his passes, and had 3.3% intercepted, good for -0.42 standard deviations below the mean.

Akili Smith (1999, 1st Round, 3rd Overall Pick, 3rd Quarterback Drafted) - Smith was drafted out of Oregon by the Cincinnati Bengals.  Donovan McNabb was taken 1 pick ahead of him, and Daunte Culpepper was taken 11th that year.  Smith qualified in 1 year (in 2000) when he completed just 44.2% of his passes and 2.2% picked off, sufficient to be -2.10 standard deviations below the mean.

Alex Smith (2005, 1st Round, 1st Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Smith was drafted out of Utah by the San Francisco 49ers.  Although still a little early to be evaluating this draft, a couple of quarterbacks that were taken subsequent to Smith are Aaron Rodgers (24), and Jason  Campbell (25).  Smith has qualified in 1 year (2006), when he completed 58.1% of his passes and had 3.6% of his attempts intercepted.  He finished that year -0.61 standard deviations below the mean CMI.

That's a who's who of busts and disappointments.  I could name another dozen or so who arguably could make this list, but we must draw the line somewhere!