NFl Draft Economics - Part 1 - Introduction

Here I will begin a series of posts discussing the economics of the NFL Draft.  The NFL Draft puzzles me.  Every year.  There are many economists (those who are both smarter and more qualified than I am) who've tried to explain it, and I'll cover their analyses in the posts to come. 

Naturally, this is a rather difficult topic to address in one simple post, so I'll do it over a few.  It's a very broad topic - it covers the evolution of the game, identifying and measuring talent, economics, labor issues, psychology, and human behavior, among others.  I won't go into all these topics, but will address some of them either directly or indirectly.  

Through all of this, the fundamental question I'll be trying to answer is why did the Detroit Lions take Matthew Stafford as the 1st pick in 2009 Draft, and pay him $78 million (actually, he has the potential to earn as much as $78 million over six years, and about $42 million is "guaranteed" - the reason the "guarantee" is in quotes is that while that is the quoted number in the press, his actual true guaranteed money is about $17 million).

And why did they do this after they took Joey Harrington with the 3rd pick overall in 2002?  And why did they do that after they took Andre Ware with the 7th overall pick in 1990?  And why did they do that after they took Chuck Long with the 12th overall pick in 1986?  That is the set of questions I'll attempt to answer.  There must be a reason why.  All the evidence suggests that they shouldn't have done this.  So why did they do this?

Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 5

This post is the corollary to the previous post.  That is, we will attempt to answer the following question: which quarterbacks drafted in the past 30 years turned out to be the biggests busts?  Naturally, these would be the quarterbacks drafted with really high expectations - those that were drafted in the first round, or better yet, drafted in the Top 10, or even better, #1 overall, perhaps.  These cases of buyers remorse are further exacerbated when quarterbacks taken later (much later in some cases) turn out to have far superior careers.  

The list you see below, along with the list in my previous post, should illustrate the difficulty of identifying who might be the best NFL quarterbacks before their first game.  It is certainly an inexact science.  It is why I question the merits of a) picking a quarterback so early in the draft, and b) paying them such large sums of money before they ever throw a pass.  I will explore these questions in my next post.  

In the meantime, here's my list of the 10 quarterbacks who were the biggest busts of the NFL Draft over the past 30 years.  Unlike the biggest surprises, this list is a bit more difficult to assess.  For the surprises, one merely looks at the relevant statistics, and then finds an appropriate weight (for example, how much weight to assign to longevity).  For the busts, how does one quantify those that don't play (or don't play enough).  In my system of quantifying quarterback passing statistics, one must throw enough passes in a given season to qualify to be ranked (in other words, I don't rank every player that threw a pass as that would be meaningless).  For that reason, I shall merely list the players, and not rank them, starting with the earliest drafts.

The List

Jack Thompson (1979, 1st Round, 3rd Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Thompson was drafted out of Washington State by the Cincinnati Bengals.  He was taken ahead of Phil Simms (7), and Joe Montana (82).  He qualified in 1 year.  He makes the list not because of his statistics as much as he was drafted so far in advance of the the quarterback who arguably was the greatest passer of all time.

Rich Campbell (1981, 1st Round, 6th Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Campbell was drafted out of The University of California by the Green Bay Packers.  He was taken ahead of Neil Lomax (33).  Campbell didn't attempt enough passes in any year to qualify, and threw a total of 68 passes in two different seasons.

Art Schlichter (1982, 1st Round, 4th Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Schlichter was drafted out of Ohio State by the Baltimore Colts.  The Chicago Bears selected Jim McMahon (5)  out of Brigham Young one pick later.  What bust list would be complete without Schlichter, known more famously for his gambling addictions.

Todd Blackledge (1983, 1st Round, 7th Overall Pick, 2nd Quarterback Drafted) - Blackledge was drafted out of Penn State by the Kansas City Chiefs.  Quarterbacks taken after Blackledge that year include Jim Kelly (14), Tony Eason (15), Ken O'Brien (24) and Dan Marino (27).  Todd qualified in 1984, a year when he completed 50.0% of his passes and had 3.7% of his attempts picked off.  John Elway was drafted 1st Overall that year.  Elway, Kelly and Marino are all in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Kelly Stouffer (1987, 1st Round, 6th Overall Pick, 2nd Quarterback Drafted) - Stouffer was drafted out of Colorado State by the St. Louis Cardinals.  Notable quarterbacks taken after Stouffer in that year's draft includes Jim Harbaugh (26), Rich Gannon (98) and Steve Beuerlein (110). Stouffer did not attempt enough passes in any given year to qualify, and threw a total of 437 passes over the course of four different seasons.

Heath Shuler (1994, 1st Round, 3rd Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Shuler was drafted out of Tennessee by the Washington Redskins.  He qualified in 1 year (in 1994), when he completed 45.3% of his passes, and had 4.5% of his passes intercepted, a poor enough performance to be -2.54 standard deviations below the mean.

Ryan Leaf (1998, 1st Round, 2nd Overall Pick, 2nd Quarterback Drafted) - Leaf was almost picked by the Indianapolis Colts.  Instead, they went with some fellow named Peyton Manning.  The San Diego Chargers drafted Leaf out of Washington State.  Successful quarterbacks drafted following Leaf that year are Brian Griese (91) and Matt Hasselbeck (187).  In 2000, Leaf completed 50.0% of his passes, and had a 5.6% interception rate, a performance so poor it was -2.81 standard deviations below the mean.

Tim Couch (1999, 1st Round, 1st Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Couch was drafted out of Kentucky by the Cleveland Browns.  That year, the following quarterbacks were also drafted.  Donovan McNabb (2), and Daunte Culpepper (11).  Couch played enough to qualify in 3 seasons with an average standard deviation of -0.58.  His best year was in 1999, when he finished when he completed 55.9% of his passes, and had 3.3% intercepted, good for -0.42 standard deviations below the mean.

Akili Smith (1999, 1st Round, 3rd Overall Pick, 3rd Quarterback Drafted) - Smith was drafted out of Oregon by the Cincinnati Bengals.  Donovan McNabb was taken 1 pick ahead of him, and Daunte Culpepper was taken 11th that year.  Smith qualified in 1 year (in 2000) when he completed just 44.2% of his passes and 2.2% picked off, sufficient to be -2.10 standard deviations below the mean.

Alex Smith (2005, 1st Round, 1st Overall Pick, 1st Quarterback Drafted) - Smith was drafted out of Utah by the San Francisco 49ers.  Although still a little early to be evaluating this draft, a couple of quarterbacks that were taken subsequent to Smith are Aaron Rodgers (24), and Jason  Campbell (25).  Smith has qualified in 1 year (2006), when he completed 58.1% of his passes and had 3.6% of his attempts intercepted.  He finished that year -0.61 standard deviations below the mean CMI.

That's a who's who of busts and disappointments.  I could name another dozen or so who arguably could make this list, but we must draw the line somewhere!

Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 4

In my last post, we looked at quarterbacks and their expected performance as compared to where they were drafted. We concluded that their on-field performance cannot be attributed to their draft position, and perhaps those drafted earlier play a bit longer. There definitely was a correlation between draft order, and their likelihood of actually playing in the NFL (playing as defined by throwing enough passes in a given year to qualify statistically).

All we really looked at in the previous post were averages over the past 30 years. We didn't spend any time looking at individual quarterbacks. In this post, we'll do so. We'll take a stab at answering the following question: Which quarterbacks have been the surprises, or the diamonds in the rough? These would be the quarterbacks that, when drafted, either had little likelihood of actually playing in the NFL, or, even when thought that they would play, surprised us as to how well they played and/or how long they played. These would also be quarterbacks that were drafted early in the draft (perhaps even in the first round), but worked out much better than the earlier picks.

Here is my list of the 10 best surprises of the NFL Draft over the past 30 years. Admittedly, it is somewhat subjective, but I do use objective criteria to determine the list.

10. Matt Hasselbeck (1998, 6th Round, 187th Overall Pick, 6th Quarterback Drafted) - Hasselbeck was drafted by the Green Bay Packers out of Boston College behind Peyton Manning (1), Ryan Leaf (2), Charlie Batch (60), Jonathan Quinn (86), and Brian Griese (91). Hasselbeck was traded by the Packers to the Seattle Seahawks in 2001. He has thrown enough passes to have qualified in 7 seasons, and his CMI has averaged 0.14 standard deviations above the mean over that period. His best year was in 2005, where he completed 65.5% of his passes and only had 2.0% of his pass attempts intercepted, a performance good enough to be 1.50 standard deviations above the mean.

9. Brian Griese (1998, 3rd Round, 91st Overall Pick, 5th Quarterback Drafted) - Griese was drafted by the Denver Broncos out of Michigan behind Peyton Manning (1), Ryan Leaf (2), Charlie Batch (60), and Jonathan Quinn (86). Griese became the starter in 1999 following the retirement of John Elway, and in 6 qualified seasons his CMI has averaged 0.42 standard deviations above the mean. His best season was 2000, where he completed 64.3% of his passes and only had 1.2% of his passes intercepted, worthy of being 2.04 standard deviations above the mean.

8. Neil O'Donnell (1990, 3rd Round, 70th Overall Pick, 5th Quarterback Drafted) - O'Donnell was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers out of the University of Maryland behind Jeff George (1), Andre Ware (7), Tom Hodson (59), and Peter Tom Willis (63). He started in 1991, qualified in 5 seasons for the Steelers, and threw enough passes in 2 more seasons - one for the Jets in 1997 and one for Cincinnati in 1998. He averaged 0.47 standard deviations better than the mean over those 7 years, and his best year was 1998, when he completed 61.8% of his passes, and was intercepted 1.2% of the time, good enough to finish 1.52 standard deviations above the mean.

7. Trent Green (1993, 8th Round, 222nd Overall Pick, 8th Quarterback Drafted) - Green was drafted by the San Diego Chargers out of Indiana University behind Drew Bledsoe (1), Rick Mirer (2), Billy Joe Hobert (58), Mark Brunell (118), Gino Torretta (192), Alex Van Pelt (216), and Elvis Grbac (219). He was the last quarterback drafted in 1993. He first threw enough passes to qualify in 1998 for the Washington Redskins. He qualified in 6 seasons altogether, the last 5 with the Kansas City Chiefs from 2001-2005. Over those 6 seasons, his CMI averaged 0.26 standard deviations above the mean. His best year came in 2003, when he completed 63.1% of his passes, and had 2.3% intercepted, good enough to finish 1.18 standard deviations better than the mean.

6. Mark Brunell (1993, 5th Round, 118th Overall Pick, 4th Quarterback Drafted) - Brunell was drafted by the Green Bay Packers out of the University of Washington behind Drew Bledsoe (1), Rick Mirer (2), and Billy Joe Hobert (58). He was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 1995. He qualified in 8 straight seasons there, and then 2 more in 2005 and 2006 for the Redskins. Over those 10 seasons, his CMI averaged 0.64 standard deviations above the mean. His best year was 1997, where he completed 60.7% of his passes, and had 1.6% of his passes intercepted - good enough to be 1.23 standard deviations better than the mean.

5. Rich Gannon (1987, 4th Round, 98th Overall Pick, 7th Quarterback Drafted) - Gannon was drafted by the New England Patriots from the University of Delaware behind Vinny Testaverde (1), Kelly Stouffer (6), Chris Miller (13), Jim Harbaugh (26), Cody Carlson (64), and Mark Vlasic (88). He was traded to the Minnesota Vikings and qualified in three years (1990-1992) while there. He threw enough passes to qualify again in 1998 with Kansas City, and then from 1999-2002 with the Oakland Raiders. Over the 10 qualifying seasons, he averaged 0.64 standard deviations better than the mean. His best year was in 2001, when he completed 65.8% of his passes, and only had 1.6% of his attempts intercepted. This was good enough to be 2.54 standard deviations better than the mean that year.

4. Dan Marino (1983, 1st Round, 27th Overall Pick, 6th Quarterback Drafted) - This was the "Year of the Quarterback". Marino was drafted by the Miami Dolphins out of the University of Pittsburgh behind John Elway (1), Todd Blackledge (7), Jim Kelly (14), Tony Eason (15), and Ken O'Brien (24). He started immediately, and went on to throw enough passes in 16 different seasons, averaging 0.51 standard deviations above the mean CMI. His best year was 1984, where he completed 64.2% of his passes, and had 3.0% of his passes intercepted. This was good to finish 1.28 standard deviations above the mean CMI that year. Dan Marino was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1995.

3. Brad Johnson (1992, 9th Round, 227th Overall Pick, 13th Quarterback Drafted) - Johnson was drafted by the Minnesota Vikings out of Florida State behind David Klingler (6), Tommy Maddox (25), Matt Blundin (40), Tony Sacca (46), Craig Erickson (86), Casey Weldon (102), Will Furer (107), Chris Hakel (112), Jeff Blake (166), Kent Graham (211), Bucky Richardson (220), and Mike Pawlawski (222). He qualified in 9 different seasons - first with Minnesota (1996-1997), then the Redskins (1999-2000), then Tampa Bay (2001-2003), and finally with the Vikings again (2005-2006). Over those 9 seasons, his CMI averaged 0.73 standard deviations better than the mean. 2005 was his best year, where he completed 62.6% of his passes and only 1.4% of his attempts were intercepted, a performance good enough to be 1.32 standard deviations better than the mean CMI that year.

2. Tom Brady (2000, 6th Round, 199th Overall Pick, 7th Quarterback Drafted) - Brady was selected by the New England Patriots from the University of Michigan behind Chad Pennington (18), Giovanni Carmazzi (65), Chris Redman (75), Tee Martin (163), Marc Bulger (168), and Spergon Wynn (183). After replacing an injured Drew Bledsoe in the second game of the 2001 season, he started every game until he got injured during the first game of the 2008 season. Over the 7 year period from 2001-2007, his CMI was good enough to average 0.82 standard deviations above the mean. His best year came in 2007, when he completed 68.9% of his passes, and was intercepted 1.4% of the time, good enough for 2.14 standard deviations above the mean.  Tom Brady will likely get into the Hall of Fame.

1. Joe Montana (1979, 3rd Round, 82nd Overall Pick, 4th Quarterback Drafted) - Montana was drafted by the San Francisco Forty Niners from the University of Notre Dame behind Jack Thompson (3), Phil Simms (7), and Steve Fuller (23). Although he played every single game in the 1979 season, he only threw 23 passes that year. Beginning in 1980, he qualified every year until 1990, when injuries slowed him down. He was eventually traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, where he played for 2 more seasons. Over those 13 years, his performances on the field, he averaged 1.54 standard deviations above the mean, including the remarkable feat of never having a season below the mean. His best season was 1989, when he completed 70.2% of his passes and had 2.1% of his pass attempts intercepted, a performance so good relative to his peers, that it ranked 2.96 standard deviations above the mean.  Montana was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2000.

Now that's a pretty good list!

Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 3

OK, so we have taken a look at those QBs that were taken first overall over the past 30 years. There have been 13 of them. And we've discussed how they've done, compared to each other. Of course, there have been many quarterbacks taken since 1979 - a total of 340 quarterbacks drafted by NFL teams, not including the 8 quarterbacks that have been taken in supplemental drafts. In this and subsequent posts that follow, we'll take a look at these quarterbacks, and we'll try to answer some questions. Questions such as:

> Do quarterbacks drafted earlier do better than quarterbacks drafted later in a draft?
> Who have been the biggest surprises (performance relative to draft position)?
> Who have been the biggest busts?
> Does it pay to draft a quarterback #1?

Some of these questions are easier to answer than others. In the course of trying to answer these questions, we will encounter some themes we will have to address along the way. Themes such as:

> The economics of the draft
> The goal(s) of a team owner
> The importance of winning

Let's start with a picture of where quarterbacks have been generally drafted over the years.

Selection QBs Taken % of Total 1 13 4% 2-5 15 4% 6-15 18 5% 16-25 13 4% 26-50 25 7% 51-75 22 6% 76-100 40 12% 101-125 26 8% 126-150 25 7% 151-175 31 9% 176-200 27 8% 201-225 31 9% 226-250 24 7% 251-300 19 6% 301-350 11 3% Total 340 100%

Determining whether quarterbacks drafted earlier perform better than quarterbacks drafted later is a little tricky. Here's how I will go about trying to answer this question. First, I will look at how many of these quarterbacks that got drafted "played" in the NFL. I define "played", as the number of seasons a quarterback threw a sufficient amount of passers to have qualified statistically. The statistic that I use (and have used in the past) is the standard deviation relative to the mean as measured by CMI. Next, I will look at how many years, did these quarterbacks play? Certainly, length of playing career could be construed as a measure of success. Third, I will look at the average standard deviation of CMI for these quarterbacks. The higher the average standard deviation, the better the performance.

Let's take a look at the first measure - the likelihood of "playing". Some definitions: "Play" = # of years qualifying as a quarterback. Likelihood of playing is defined as # of players qualifying in at least 1 year relative to # of players drafted.

Here's the data:

Selection QBs Taken QBs "Played" %  "Playing" 1 13 13 100% 2-5 15 14 93% 6-15 18 15 83% 16-25 13 10 77% 26-50 25 15 60% 51-75 22 12 55% 76-100 40 16 40% 101-125 26 8 31% 126-150 25 10 40% 151-175 31 5 16% 176-200 27 8 30% 201-225 31 9 29% 226-250 24 5 21% 251-300 19 2 11% 301-350 11   0% Total 340 142 42%

At least according to just this measure, the evidence is fairly compelling. The results in this table show that players drafted in the earlier rounds are more likely to see significant playing time. It could suggest that the players drafted earlier are in fact more talented, or, if you are skeptical, it might suggest that team management influences coaches to give more playing time to the players drafted earlier to justify their investment (I find this latter suggestion a little hard to believe).

OK, so they are more likely to see more playing time. But what happens when they do play? How do these players perform on the field? I will look at two measures. The first, is the number of years that they play in the NFL. Presumably, the better you are, the longer you get to play (all else being equal). I have actually shown this to be true in previous posts (see here and here). So, if the players drafted earlier are in fact better players, we should see the length of their careers exceeding those of players drafted later. Let's see what the data shows:

Selection QBs Taken QBs "Played" Yrs "Played" 1 13 13 7.2 2-5 15 14 4.7 6-15 18 15 4.2 16-25 13 10 2.6 26-50 25 15 6.9 51-75 22 12 2.8 76-100 40 16 4.0 101-125 26 8 3.1 126-150 25 10 2.5 151-175 31 5 4.6 176-200 27 8 3.3 201-225 31 9 2.7 226-250 24 5 2.6 251-300 19 2 3.0 301-350 11     Total 340 142 4.2

Other than the quarterbacks taken first overall, there does not appear to be a appreciable difference in the # of years played by draft position. I am not suggesting that there isn't. There is. It's just not as much as I would have thought prior to looking at the data.

There are two possible explanations. The first is that, by the time the coaches and scouts have determined those worthy of getting playing time, there should only be minor differences in talent levels as it relates to the draft position. The previous table showed that there is a weeding out process that is more severe at the lower end of the draft, so the ones that do end up getting playing time, are probably on par with quarterbacks taken higher (i.e. pre-season training camp could be used as an additional, more rigorous screening process than merely watching college football games, and the NFL combine). The second reason is that again, there maybe a slight inherent bias to play the early draftees more, simply to give them more opportunities to continue to "prove" themselves.

We're still not done. I said earlier that we'll look at two measures. The first was the length of their careers. The second is their actual statistical performance, as measured by the standard deviation from the mean, using CMI as the measuring statistic. A number greater than zero indicating better than average performance, and a number less than zero indicating worse than average. Let's take a look.

Selection QBs Taken QBs "Played" Yrs "Played" Avg Dev 1 13 13 7.2 -0.06 2-5 15 14 4.7 -0.34 6-15 18 15 4.2 -0.15 16-25 13 10 2.6 0.36 26-50 25 15 6.9 -0.01 51-75 22 12 2.8 -0.32 76-100 40 16 4.0 0.16 101-125 26 8 3.1 -0.01 126-150 25 10 2.5 -0.70 151-175 31 5 4.6 -0.35 176-200 27 8 3.3 -0.16 201-225 31 9 2.7 -0.33 226-250 24 5 2.6 0.42 251-300 19 2 3.0 -0.32 301-350 11       Total 340 142 4.2 -0.11

Looking at this table, it's really difficult to see that the players drafted earlier, who actually ended up playing, have done better than those players drafted later. This suggests to me that once it is determined who actually plays, then the only difference that can be associated with draft order, if anything, is the number of years the player plays, and that probably is somewhat influenced by the team's investment in the players drafted earlier.

So what does this all mean for Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions, or, Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets. About the only thing we can be certain of at this point, is that they will play. They may end up playing 5 years, maybe more. As for their actual performance on the field, our best guess is that they'll be about average. Maybe I'm wrong on this. Maybe Matthew Stafford is the next Peyton Manning. Or, he could be the next Tim Couch. Or, he could be the next Eli Manning. Only time will tell.