Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 2

In my previous post, I pointed out the quarterbacks that have been taken first overall in the NFL draft.  With expectations sky-high for Matthew Stafford to lead the Lions out of the doldrums, let's take a look back and see how these previous #1 picks did.

A quarterback taken first overall is hardly a sure thing.  Of course, it is still too early to figure where the most recent #1 picks will end up, as they have a few years ahead of them.  2 of the 13 are in the Hall of Fame - John Elway and Troy Aikman.  Peyton Manning will be.  Although Elway was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his statistics (as measured by standard deviation from the mean CMI) do not suggest that he was worthy (but that is for another discussion).  Without a doubt, both Manning (Peyton, not Eli), and Aikman have had outstanding careers, and, in looking back, fully deserving of being the #1 pick.  Of the rest, Carson Palmer appears the only quarterback currently justifying his lofty draft status.  Only time will tell if the others turn out to have great, or even good careers (I wouldn't bet on it).  

What does this all mean for Matthew Stafford and the Lions?  Well, it could mean absolutely nothing.  Or, if you believe in statistics, and you believe that NFL scouts' abilities to pick out talent isn't better today than it has been in the past, then the odds are against Stafford.  He is, in all likelihood, not going to be the savior that the Lions seek.  I will have more on this in the next few weeks.