Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 2

In my previous post, I pointed out the quarterbacks that have been taken first overall in the NFL draft.  With expectations sky-high for Matthew Stafford to lead the Lions out of the doldrums, let's take a look back and see how these previous #1 picks did.

A quarterback taken first overall is hardly a sure thing.  Of course, it is still too early to figure where the most recent #1 picks will end up, as they have a few years ahead of them.  2 of the 13 are in the Hall of Fame - John Elway and Troy Aikman.  Peyton Manning will be.  Although Elway was elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, his statistics (as measured by standard deviation from the mean CMI) do not suggest that he was worthy (but that is for another discussion).  Without a doubt, both Manning (Peyton, not Eli), and Aikman have had outstanding careers, and, in looking back, fully deserving of being the #1 pick.  Of the rest, Carson Palmer appears the only quarterback currently justifying his lofty draft status.  Only time will tell if the others turn out to have great, or even good careers (I wouldn't bet on it).  

What does this all mean for Matthew Stafford and the Lions?  Well, it could mean absolutely nothing.  Or, if you believe in statistics, and you believe that NFL scouts' abilities to pick out talent isn't better today than it has been in the past, then the odds are against Stafford.  He is, in all likelihood, not going to be the savior that the Lions seek.  I will have more on this in the next few weeks.

Quarterbacks and the NFL Draft - Part 1

In this post, I want to take a trip back in time (back to 1979, specifically), to see which quarterbacks were picked first overall in the regular NFL Draft.  

Why 1979?  Two reasons.  First, it gives us exactly 30 years of data.  Second, it was the year where Joe Montana was drafted out of Notre Dame.  Since 1979, there have been 13 quarterbacks selected as the first overall pick in the regular NFL draft.  This does not include Steve Young, who was taken first overall in the 1984 Supplemental Draft.

A couple of observations.  In the 1980's, 3 quarterbacks were taken as the first overall pick.  In the 1990's there were 4.  In the 2000's, there have been 6 taken, through 2008, and, with the Detroit Lions taking Matthew Stafford first overall in 2009 , that would make 7.

Another way to look at it:  In the 19-year period from 1979 to 1997, there were 5 quarterbacks taken first overall.  Since then, 12 years if you include the 2009 draft, 9 quarterbacks have been taken first overall.  2000, 2006 and 2008 were the exceptions.

Here's the full list.