Better Than Jay Cutler

A lot of noise this past month about Jay Cutler. First, the Denver Broncos' new head coach, former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, apparently tried to work a trade to get Matt Cassel from the New England Patriots. This apparently didn't it well with the Pro-Bowl quarterback. After a lot of posturing from both sides, Cutler was eventually traded to the Chicago Bears for Kyle Orton and draft picks. This post isn't about who was right or wrong in the fracas, or which team got the better end of the deal in the trade. This post is about answering the following two questions:

1) How good is Jay Cutler?

2) Are there quarterbacks with similar experience that are better than Jay Cutler, and, if so, who are they?

The table below ranks each of the 30 quarterbacks that threw enough passes last year to qualify to be ranked. The ranking is based on CMI, and not the NFL's quarterback rating system. In numerous posts prior to this, I have discussed why CMI is a better measure of a quarterback's passing performance than the NFL passer rating system.

Just looking at last year, the year that Jay Cutler got named to his first Pro-Bowl, he was, by this measure, a below-average quarterback. His CMI of 0.536 was (0.14) standard deviations below the mean. It should be noted that even though he was below average relative to all quarterbacks in 2008, it wasn't unexpected. Previously, I discussed the notion of performance improving with experience. So, if you were to look only at quarterbacks and their second year performance, their average is (0.21) standard deviations relative to the mean. Relative to that measure, he actually did better than the typical second year quarterback.

Let's take a closer look at the table above. The last 2 columns indicate the # of years the quarterback has played since he first qualified, and the total # of years he has qualified. So, Cutler has played 2 seasons where he threw enough passes to qualify, and this is second consecutive year of being qualified. There are six other quarterbacks in this table who have similar experience.

They are (rank in parenthesis):

Jason Campbell - WAS (5)

Matt Schaub - HOU (7)

Trent Edwards - BUF (8)

David Garrard - JAX (12)

Jay Cutler - DEN (16)

Derek Anderson - CLE (30)

Of the six quarterbacks who were in their second year (Garrard has the most experience of all the quarterbacks, even though he has only qualified in two years), Cutler only outperformed Derek Anderson of Cleveland in 2008. Ok, so 1 year does not make a quarterback. Let's take a look at these six quarterbacks and see how they've done in each of their first two (qualifying) years.

According to this table, both Garrard and Schaub have outperformed Cutler in each of 2007 and 2008. And, arguably, over the two-year period, so did Campbell. The only quarterback in this class that has clearly underperformed the rest of the group is Derek Anderson. He will not last long in the NFL.

Admittedly, it's difficult to judge a quarterback after his first two years. But, so far at least, there appear to be several quarterbacks that have outperformed Cutler. It will be interesting to watch this group over the next several years, and especially Cutler, as he will be with a new team.

A Few Weeks Off

I took a few weeks off from posting.  It was necessary for several reasons.  

First, I do have a day job as the Chief Financial Officer of InsWeb Corporation, a publicly traded company (NASDAQ CM: INSW).  The months of March and April, I get particularly absorbed in my work as we have to officially close the books for the prior fiscal year (in this case the year ending December 31, 2008), and we have to get prepared for closing the books for the first quarter of 2009.  This is followed by a meeting with our Board of Directors.  It is an extremely busy time, and a very important time for our business.  

Second, posting a blog (the way I do it), takes a lot of time, as I spend considerable time before posting doing a lot of research, as I like to support my arguments with facts and analyses.  

Third, I got distracted by a couple of things.  The "event" known as March Madness - the NCAA basketball tournament, and the 2009 Major League Baseball season.  Well, not the baseball season per se, but the fantasy baseball leagues that I participate in.  Preparing for these takes up a lot of time.

Fourth, I needed a break.

Well, I'm back at it.  I have two immediate topics that I'd like to cover.  

The first is the trade of Jay Cutler from the Denver Broncos to the Chicago Bears.  Quick, name three quarterbacks who, like Cutler, finished their second year in the NFL (technically, 2008 was Cutler's third season, but the way I count it, it was his second season throwing enough passes to qualify for a rating) last year that are arguably better than Jay Cutler.  Didn't think you could do it.  I'll have the answers in my next post.  The answers might surprise you.

The second is the NFL draft.  I have a lot of observations about the draft.  I won't be discussing whether Matthew Stafford will be a better NFL quarterback than Mark Sanchez.  Why?  Because I don't know.  And neither do you.  And nor does anyone else.  Only time will tell.  And even then, we may never know.